Dear all,

The next seminar in our series of statistics talks for people interested in quantitative methods in biology and medicine will take place on Thursday 16 November 2017 at 11:00, in the room 11 situated on the floor -1 of the Biopôle 4 building (also known as SE-A building, see the enclosed map) located on the Biopôle site on the frontier between Lausanne and Epalinges (M2 stop: Les Croisettes).

The speaker will be Dr. Elisabetta Rapiti (Geneva Cancer Registry, University of Geneva).

Title: Projecting the Cancer Burden in Switzerland, from 2015 to 2019

Abstract: Accurate information on the future burden of cancer is essential to prioritize prevention activities, allocate health services and evaluate the impact of prevention strategies. However, projecting cancer rates is a hazardous exercise.  Population growth and ageing patterns, as well as changes in cancer risks and to some extent detection, are just some of the factors that affect future predictions.  Among the prerequisites for making evidence-based predictions are high-quality (and preferably long-term) population-based data on cancer incidence and reliable population forecasts.  The statistical model that is most commonly used for prediction is the age-period-cohort model, in which the period and birth cohort effects are used as proxies for events such as risk factors, which we often cannot measure directly. In this presentation, projections of cancer incidence and cases for the period 2015-2019 in Switzerland will be shown. Cancer incidence rates were estimated using incidence data derived from the National Institute for Cancer Epidemiology and Registration (NICER) and the NORDPRED software package which uses the age-period-cohort-model.

Hope to see you there!

Valentin
(for the organizers: Zoltán Kutalik, Isabella Locatelli, Valentin Rousson, Frédéric Schütz)

CHUV
centre hospitalier universitaire vaudois

Valentin ROUSSON - Professeur associé, mathematicien/statisticien
Département universitaire de medecine et santé communautaires (DUMSC)
Médecine sociale et préventive (IUMSP)
Biostatistique et méthodes quantitatives

BIO 2/2ème/103
Rte de la Corniche 10, CH - 1010 Lausanne

+41 (0)21 314 73 28  TEL
Valentin.Rousson@chuv.ch
www.chuv.ch