Dear list members,
A short course entitled "CONTEMPORARY METHODS OF MORTALITY ANALYSIS" taught by Prof. Leonid Gavrilov and Prof. Natalia Gavrilova from the Center of Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago, will be held on June 19, 20, 21 2013 at the Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine from the University Hospital Lausanne.
The course is free of charge but the number of participants is limited to 30. The participants have to register at Catherine.Turrian(a)chuv.ch<mailto:Catherine.Turrian@chuv.ch> before May 31, 2013 providing their name, professional affiliation and e-mail address.
A confirmation of registration will be sent.
DATE : JUNE 19-20-21, 2013
Location : IUMSP, Biopôle 2, rte de la Corniche 10, CH-1010 Lausanne, niveau -1
Duration: two and half days
Wednesday June 19 14:00 – 17:00
Thursday June 20 09:00 – 12:00 and 14:00 – 17:00
Friday June 21 09:00 – 12:00 and 14:00 – 17:00
Description: The course will focus on contemporary statistical methods to study recent historical trends of human mortality and longevity (with implications for forecasting). It considers new approaches to mortality projections and population forecasts, including data analysis at advanced ages. The course starts with basic methods of construction and analysis of period and cohort life tables and explaining common mortality indicators used in demography and survival analysis (e.g., explaining the difference between the hazard rate and the probability of death). The course describes existing mortality laws observed for humans and other animals (the Gompertz-Makeham law, the compensation law of mortality, and the late-life mortality deceleration) and it provides explanation of mortality laws in terms of mathematical reliability theory of aging. Methods of mortality measurement and modeling at advanced ages (including data quality control measures) are described using examples from human and animal mortality data. Various parametric and semi-parametric approaches to mortality forecasting are also presented (Lee-Carter model, model based on principal component analysis of mortality trends). Specifically, a modified method of mortality shifting is illustrated using mortality data of Sweden and other developed countries. This approach involves identifying the best time interval for measuring the rate of mortality decline and its use for mortality extrapolation. Applying cohort-component method of population projections under different scenarios of life extension is also described. New studies and findings on predictors of exceptional human longevity are presented. Finally, methods for calculating healthy life expectancy and health-related indicators are discussed. Participants of this course are encouraged to bring with them laptops with Excel and Stata software for practical exercises on statistical methods and models described in this course.
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Valentin Rousson
Unité de Statistique
Institut Universitaire de Médecine Sociale et Préventive
Centre Hospitalier Universitaire et Université de Lausanne
Biopôle 2
Route de la Corniche 10
CH-1010 Lausanne
Tél : ++41 (021) 314 73 28
Fax : ++41 (021) 314 73 73
Email: Valentin.Rousson(a)chuv.ch<mailto:Valentin.Rousson@chuv.ch>
